Tag Archive for: jackson wy year end

2020: Year End Review – Five Year Trends and 2021 Forecast

Jackson Hole Real Estate Trends – Past 5 years

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales – Past 5 years

Well, 2020 was a year for the record books as statistics from this past year dwarfed all previous years. MLS sales had not exceeded 500 per year over the last 5 years and almost reached 650 in 2020 (a 37% increase over the previous 4 year average). Sales volume experienced even bigger gains in 2020. Looking back, we saw annual sales volume increasing from $634 million to $676 million from 2016 to 2017. The market took a jump in 2018, when sales volume increased more than $250 million from the previous year – a staggering 38% increase (with only a 13% increase in sales). The market stayed steady in 2019, with a similar level of sales and slightly less sales volume (about a 5% drop), a healthy sign after a very strong 2018. Enter 2020, where sales volume skyrocketed – up to $1.8 billion – more than DOUBLE the average annual sales volume of the previous 4 years. To put it in perspective: 2020 saw as much sales volume as 2018 & 2019 COMBINED!

As to be expected, the average sales price also experienced a record breaking increase, with the trend following that of sales volume: Average sales price hovered around $1.5 million in 2016 & 2017, jumped up to $1,892,000 in 2018 and cooled slightly in 2019 to just above $1.8 million. The average sales price in 2020 was $2.8 million, a $1,000,000 increase from 2019 and a 68% increase over the previous 4 year average. Wow! These record breaking increases were a result of unprecedented demand, as many out of town buyers flocked to Jackson Hole and competed with local buyers on property purchases. What resulted were many multiple offer situations, contributing to 170 properties selling at or above their listing prices in 2020 (more than 1 in every 4 sales). Compare that to the previous 4 years, where the highest percentage was 23% in 2018 (and only 17% last year). It’s interesting to track the various price points over the past 4 years. The $1-3 million segment follows the overall market growth, mirroring increases in overall sales and volume. In contrast, the luxury segment saw oversized growth in 2020. Back in 2017, there were just 42 sales in this high end segment. In 2018, sales in this segment jumped along with the overall market, recording 76 sales. After seeing a similar level of sales in 2019, this segment exploded in 2020 with 186 sales over $3 million, more than double the number of sales in the previous two years combined. On the other end of the spectrum, sales under $500,000 dropped off considerably in 2020, representing less than 5% of all sales.

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Market Analysis

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

In a year of unprecedented demand, the Jackson Hole market saw a decline in inventory levels in 2020. Looking back over the past 5 years, new listings in 2016-2018 ranged between 613-632 per year. As a result of a busy 2018 in sales, sellers responded and new listings jumped in 2019, with nearly 700 new listings hitting the market. In 2020, inventory levels actually dropped, with barely enough new listings (685) to replace the 643 sales in 2020. It’s interesting to analyze the gap between sales and new listings over the past 5 years. In 2016 & 2017, new listings outpaced sales by 170 properties each year. In 2018, inventory tightened a bit, with 138 more listings than sales. In 2019, more listings hit the market, an increase in supply which held sales (and dollar volume) steady, as new listings outpaced sales by 203 properties. Compare those trends to 2020, where the gap between listings and sales was only 42, by far the lowest supply to demand (sales) we’ve seen yet.

Despite seeing fewer listings in 2020, the listing volume increased significantly from 2019, recording 17% more in volume (with 11 fewer listings). Looking back over the last 5 years, listing volume has increased each year, growing by roughly $250 million in the past 2 years in particular. The year 2020 saw a $325 million increase from 2019, pretty amazing considering there were actually fewer new listings in 2020! After increasing 12% in 2018, and holding steady in 2019 at just under $2.5 million, the average listing price jumped significantly in 2020 – up to more than $3.2 million, a 30% increase over 2019.

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2021 Forecast

By all accounts, 2020 in the Jackson Hole real estate market was one for the record books. Annual sales were up 30% and overall sales volume in 2020 was more than double that of 2019. The average sales price was $1 million higher than in 2019. Fewer listings came onto the market, but did so at higher prices as listing volume increased 17% and the average listing price nearly reached $3.2 million.

The global pandemic had buyers from all over the country, many of whom could now work remotely, escaping to less populated areas with access to the outdoors. Many had dreams to one day move to Jackson Hole, a favorite vacation spot, and the pandemic encouraged them to act. We saw buyers urgently shopping for Jackson Hole real estate at all price points, adding tremendous demand to a market with, for the most part, a permanently limited supply of properties.

Now with the vaccine rollout and a hint of normalcy on the horizon, do people still need to escape? Is it a permanent lifestyle change or just a temporary exodus? Do these buyers miss the city enough to move back? Even if they do move back, will we see that inventory come back on the market? Or, will many elect to keep their newly purchased property as a vacation home? How much inventory (supply) do we need to see a real effect on pricing? Right now, the Jackson Hole market has the lowest level of inventory in recent history. Pre-pandemic, demand for Jackson Hole properties was strong. Even if we go back to previous levels, there will still be enough demand to eat up existing low inventory levels. Regardless of the demand changes, we would need to see supply increase significantly for pricing to be affected.

Looking back over the past 30 years, Jackson Hole real estate has seen, on average, 6-8% annual appreciation, with a 5-10% correction every 5 years or so. The Jackson Hole market has been growing at a strong pace for the past 5+ years, with 2020 being an explosive year. For example a newly built home in Town sold for $675,000 in 2014, sold again for $1,050,000 in 2018 and was just listed for $2,150,000 – and is under contract! Some will argue that these levels of appreciation simply cannot continue and at some point we will see a correction. In larger markets and pockets in the nation that may be true, but will we see a correction in Jackson Hole? Again, to see any affect on pricing we need to see a sharp drop in demand or a significant increase in supply. At this point, it’s hard to imagine either of those happening.  We are still seeing buyers from across the country move their money from the stock market into real estate. Jackson Hole will continue to be a draw for many who value a sense of community, outdoor recreation and mountain living.

I think 2021 will be another strong year for Jackson Hole real estate. Record low inventory levels will make it challenging for all buyers, creating competition and multiple offers. We may see fewer sales because there are simply less options on the market, but pricing and values will remain strong.

Advice for Sellers in 2021:

Track your property’s value in today’s market. Be familiar with comparable sales, but also focus on current inventory levels, which may have more impact on market value. Properties that are priced with those two things in mind (vs. putting an unreasonable price tag on it) are receiving the most interest and selling quickly. (Talk to Katie about an aggressive yet accurate pricing strategy.)

Strategize for mass market exposure. There are many buyers out there with limited options to buy. As a seller, you will have the most success if you can reach them all at once. Finding one buyer will not be difficult, your goal should be to bring all the interested buyers to the table at the same time in order to achieve your desired terms of sale. (Talk to Katie about her unique strategies to obtain mass market exposure.)

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers. Think about what terms are most important to you: price? leaseback? quick closing? Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: De-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return. (Have Katie join you for a tour of your home to discuss what you can do to increase your home’s value.)

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Advice for Buyers in 2021:

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? Are you learning about properties before they hit the market? (Talk to Katie to make sure she is on the look out for soon to be listed properties for you.)

Determine what you want and be ready to act quickly. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. Get all your ducks in a row now. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation? (Talk to Katie about proven strategies to “win” in these competitive situations.)

If you need to sell your home to buy something else, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens. Explore options that would allow you to purchase before selling (i.e. bridge financing, leasebacks, etc.) (Ask Katie to help you crunch numbers and brainstorm options.)

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Year End Listings Review – Jackson Hole

2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher.  New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices.  That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

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$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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70%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2020: Year End Sales Review – Jackson Hole

2020: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$1,799,973,233

Total Sales Volume

$2,799,336

Average Sales Price

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Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in 2020
2020 was a tale of two markets – pre-pandemic and the early stages of the shut down and the resulting Jackson Hole real estate boom that followed. The first two quarters of 2020 actually lagged the 2019 market, which was a very strong year. Sale transactions were down in Q1 and Q2, while sales volume kept pace with 2019 through the second quarter. In mid-June, the Jackson Hole real estate market started to pick up and then exploded in the summer. The second half of 2020 saw 200 more sales than in the second half of 2019, an increase of 70% over 2019. Sales volume skyrocketed, dwarfing sales volume levels from 2019, recording $898 million MORE in sales volume in the second half of the year vs. 2019, an increase of 165%! After a modest increase in Q1, the average sales price was roughly $1 million higher each quarter through the end of 2020, ending at $2.8 million for the year 2020. The median sales price was also up in 2020, increasing $437,000 to just under $1,600,000.
Similar to 2019, the majority of property sales in 2020 occurred in the $1-3 million price point. However, the largest shifts in price point occurred in the high and low ends of the market. Homes selling for above $3 million represented nearly 30% of all sales in 2020, while that same segment accounted for only 15% of all sales in 2019. On the other end of the spectrum, after representing 14% of all sales in 2019, sales under $500,000 accounted for less than 5% of sales in 2020.
The average sale to list price ratio was 97% or higher in 8 out of 12 months in 2020, as increased demand weakened buyers ability to negotiate on price. In that vein, 170 property sales in 2020 were at or above their listing prices, meaning more than 1 out of every 4 sales sold for full price (or above). Compare that to 2019, when just 17% of all sales were at or above the listing price.
Single family homes accounted for more sales in 2020, representing 52% of all transactions (vs. 46% in 2019). Fewer condo and townhome sales occurred in 2020 (30% of all sales vs. 40% in 2019), while land sales got a boost in 2020 – accounting for 18% of all sales (up from 14% in 2019).
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$1,592,167

Average Median Sales Price

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18%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2020: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$2,175,597,500

LIST PRICE Volume

$3,176,055

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

New Listings in 2020

Slightly fewer new listings came onto the market in 2020 than in 2019. For many years, the Jackson Hole real estate market has suffered from low inventory levels (and high demand) and this year was no different. Through the first two quarters, new inventory trailed 2019 by 40 listings. After demand for Jackson real estate exploded in Q3, more sellers were encouraged to put their properties on the market for sale and new listings outpaced 2019 in the second half of the year. Despite seeing a total of 11 fewer new listings in all of 2020, the dollar volume of those 2020 listings was significantly higher.  New listing volume outpaced 2019 in 3 of the 4 quarters, finishing the year with $2.175 billion worth of new inventory – a staggering $323 million increase in new listing volume (with 11 fewer listings!). As a result, the average listing price jumped to over $3.1 million in 2020 (from $2.66 million in 2019). The median list price also increased in 2020, up over $2 million for the first time since I began tracking stats in 2013. An interesting thing happened in August of 2020: monthly sales started outpacing monthly new listings, meaning new properties hitting the market were not keeping pace with property purchases – further diminishing already low inventory levels and putting additional upward pressure on pricing.

Not surprising, 70% of new listings in 2020 were in excess of $1 million, with this segment seeing 32 more listings than in 2019. Breaking it down further, the largest shift occurred in the luxury market ($3+ million), which saw 83 more listings in 2020. All other segments under $3 million actually saw a decrease in new listings in 2020, with the $1-3 million price point seeing the largest drop (51 fewer listings than 2019). The breakdown in property type was consistent with 2019, so the shift in listing price can’t be explained by simply “more single family home listings” – prices were up across the board, with all property types seeing an increase in average listing prices.  That being said, we saw the largest spike in single family home listings come at the start of the third quarter, no doubt contributing to the record breaking sales numbers this past summer.

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$2,043,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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70%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2019: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

2019: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$890,085,959

Total Sales Volume

$1,805,448

Average Sales Price

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Market Analysis

After an explosive 2018 that saw a 13% annual increase in sales and a staggering 38% increase in dollar volume, many predicted that the market would slow in 2019, many thought the market was in need of a correction. The number of real estate sales did not slow down in 2019, recording a nearly identical number of sales as 2018. After under performing 2018 in the first two quarters, transactions increased in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, netting a total of 493 sales* (vs. 494 sales in 2018). What did change in 2019 was the overall dollar volume, dropping 6% percent from 2018, to $890,000,000* in 2019. After starting the year off strong  (2019 Q1 sales volume was up 50% from 2018 Q1), the second quarter of 2019 really under preformed 2018, recording just over half of the sales volume seen in the 2nd quarter of 2018. While the second half of 2019 recorded similar numbers to the same time in 2018, the overall dollar volume of 2019 still came up $45 million short of 2018. With a similar level of sales and less dollar volume, it’s no surprise that the average sale price followed a similar trend (high in Q1, low in Q2 and pretty even in Q3 & Q4) with the end of year average dropping $85,000 (4.5%) to just over $1.8 million. In analyzing the price point breakdown in 2019 vs 2018, a few trends become clear:

  1. The high end market saw a similar level of sales in 2019 (74 vs 76 in 2018). Digging deeper, shows that overall dollar volume of this segment was down 3.5% in 2019, accounting for $412 million in total volume.
  2. Sales seemed to shift from the locals market ($500,000 – $1,000,000), which was down 17%, to the $1-3 million range, which was up 9% from 2018.
  3. The most dramatic change occurred in the sub $500,000 market, where nearly 50% MORE sales occurred in 2019. The 24 additional sales in this price point can be almost entirely explained by the sales of the Virginian Village condos. Condominiumized by the developer several years ago, these 1 and 2 bedroom units located in the heart of Jackson were completely renovated with new appliances, flooring, kitchens, baths, etc. After selling several units FSBO, the remaining units were put on the market with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and accounted for 26 sales between Feb – Dec 2019. These condos were in high demand, selling one after the other, with 1 bedrooms selling between $302,000 – $325,000 and 2 bedrooms selling between $402,500 – $435,000.
This influx of inventory and sales in the entry level market, can help explain why, despite a decrease in average sales price, the average monthly median sales price in 2019 was actually up, increasing to $1.15 million from $1.09 million in 2018. With more sales in the bottom end of the market, the median (which measures the middle of the market sales) was pushed up in 2019 because of the additional 26 sales on the low end. In analyzing the property type breakdown, it shows that single family home sales decreased 5%, representing 46% of all sales in 2019, while townhome/condo sales increased in 2019, up 6% representing 40% of all sales. Again, most likely a result of the 26 Virginian Village condo sales in 2019. Land sales represented a similar amount of sales in 2019 (14% vs 12% in 2018).
*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2019, excluding fractional sales and duplicate entries. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.
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$1,155,979

Average Median Sales Price

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14%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2019: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$1,852,044,899

LIST PRICE Volume

$2,660,984

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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Market Analysis

Buyers had more options in 2019, as 696 new residential listings entered the market, compared to 632 in 2018, an increase of 10%. New inventory levels outpaced 2018 in the first 3 quarters of 2019, with an especially strong Q3 that saw 40 more new listings than the same period in 2018. While the number of new listings increased 10%, the dollar volume of those new listings jumped up 15%, with $243 million more in dollar volume than in 2018. New listing volume outpaced 2018 in 3 of the 4 quarters, with a very strong Q2 seeing $200 million more in listing volume than in Q2 2018. So, not only was more inventory entering the market in 2019, but it did so at higher price points. As a result, the average listing price increased 4.5%, up to $2.66 million in 2019. Sixty-five percent of 2019’s new listings were in excess of $1 million, with the majority (44%) in the $1-3 million range. Fifty-seven properties entered the market priced under $500,000, with the Virginian Village condos accounting for roughly half (28) of the listings. Single family homes accounted for just over 50% of new listings in 2019.

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$1,412,500

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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65%

Listings over $1 million

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

2018: Year End Review – Jackson Hole

2018: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

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$1,892,471

Average Sales Price

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$934,880,606

Total Sales Volume

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Market Analysis

Wow – what a year! The real estate market in 2018 saw nearly 500 transactions totaling $934 million in dollar volume*. To put that in perspective, compare it to last year, where 436 sales produced $676 million in sales volume. So, from 2017 to 2018, the number of real estate sales increased by 13% but the total dollar volume increased by 38%. So what does that tell us? Not only did more transactions occur, but they occurred a much higher prices. Another way to look at the trend is through the overall average sales price, which increased from $1,550,000 in 2017 to nearly $1,900,000 in 2018, an increase of 22%!

In comparing sale transactions quarter by quarter, 2018 outperformed 2017 in each quarter. Regarding sales volume, while 2018 started out slowly with slightly less volume than Q1 2017, the remainder of the year made up for it, especially in the second quarter when 2018 sales volume was double that of 2017.

So, in what price points did the additional sales occur in 2018? The majority (40%) of sales occurred in the $500,000 – $1 million range (the “local’s market”), a similar share seen in 2017. Sales in the $1-3 million range also grew at consistent levels, representing 35% of the all 2018 sales. The big shift in 2018, was a 47% decrease in sales under $500,000 (47 sales in 2018 vs. 69 in 2017) AND a significant increase in sales over $3 million. In 2018, there were 76 sales in excess of $3 million, representing 15% of all market sales. Compare that to 2017, when 41 sales occurred in this price range (and represented only 9% of all market sales).

*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2018. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

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$1,090,510

Average Median Sales Price

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12%

of Sales were Land Lots

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2018: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

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$2,456,015

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

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$1,609,081,350

LIST PRICE Volume

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Market Analysis

After two years of declining or stable inventory, total new listings were up slightly in 2018. Despite the increase in listings this past year, inventory levels are still low compared to levels seen in 2015-2016. The timing of new listings to market was similar between 2017 and 2018, with the majority of new listings coming hitting the market in the second quarter (April/May/June), typically popular months for new listings. However, there was a surge of new listings in the 4th quarter in 2018, when 108 new properties came onto the market (vs. 79 in Q4 2017).

The 632 new properties that hit the market in 2018 totaled over $1.6 billion in dollar volume. The 3% increase in new listings spurred a 18.5% increase in overall listing volume. What does that tell us? Slightly more inventory was coming onto the market in 2018, but at much higher prices, as illustrated by a 15% increase in the average listing price in 2018. When comparing quarter by quarter, the average listing price was actually similar to 2017, with the exception of Q3 2018, when the average list price was $1 million higher than Q3 2017.

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$1,299,560

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

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$2,115,078

AVERAGE LIST PRICE For Land

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Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.