Oct 2016

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Oct 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Sept 2016:

  • 61 :: Total residential sale transactions (highest since Aug 2013)
  • $87,928,000 :: Total residential sales volume (highest since Oct 2015)
  • $1,441,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (highest in past 6 months)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (down from average)
  • 195 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (highest in past 5 months)

What it means: After a very active August, both transactions and sales volume increased again in September reaching a new recent high in the Jackson Hole real estate market. There were 61 property sales in Teton County in September, the highest amount recorded in over 3 years! After doubling from July to August, monthly dollar volume climbed even higher, recording close to $90 million in sales in September, a level not seen since Oct 2015. While the 2016 market has been strong, overall it has fallen short of activity levels and volume seen in 2015. For example, since January 2016, there have been 328 sales in the Jackson Hole area compared with 356 transactions by this time last year. Further, 2016 year-to-date sales volume of $433,000,000 pales in comparison to the $557,000,000 in volume reached through September in 2015. Nine months into 2016, the data suggests we may have hit a "peak" in the Fall of 2015. That being said, the recent increasing trend of sales transactions may contribute to different results at year end. It will be interesting to see the sale/volume numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016 in the Jackson real estate market - stay tuned! The average sales price increased again in September reaching it's highest level in the past 6 months, however it is still roughly 25% lower than the average sales price seen last September and October. The sale price to list price ratio dipped down below the typical level (96%) in September as buyers received a 5% discount to list price, on average. That being said, roughly 20% of properties still sold at, near or ABOVE the listing price, especially in the sub $700,000 price range (8 of 21 sales). The average number of days a property sits on the market before selling increased in September but still remained below 200 days for the 5th month in a row. Interestingly, while 18 properties sold within 90 days of listing (29% of all sales) many properties that sold in September had been on the market for quite some time. Twenty one properties (34% of all sales) had been on the market for over 6 months while 11 properties had been marked for over a year before finally selling in September. This suggests that many sellers didn't want to spend another winter trying to sell their property. It's important to note that as a buyer, now may be a good time to capitalize on many Sellers' increasing motivation to sell their home before the snow flies. (Please connect me if you are interested in discussing some of these opportunities.) 

What Sold in Sept 2016?

  • 38% :: Percentage of single family home sales (lowest % in past year)
  • 34% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (identical to last month)
  • 28% :: Percentage of Land Sales (double last month)
  • 44% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (similar to last month)
  • 56% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million 
  • 15% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (back down after increase)

What it means:  After many months of consistency, the breakdown of sales by property type changed significantly in Septebmer. Single family home sales represented only 38% of all sales last month, dipping below 40% for the first time since Aug 2015. This drop can be attributed to dwindling available inventory, especially in the Town of Jackson, where there are currently only 19 homes available under $1.5 million.  Condo and townhome sales remained consistent, representing 1 out of every 3 sales in Teton County last month. Three of the condo sales in September were over $1 million including two "downtown" high-end condos on Pearl Ave and a 5 bedroom condo in Teton Village, which sold quickly after hitting the market.  Land sales spiked in September, representing nearly 30% of all sales, double the 12-month average of 15%. Lots sales in September occurred all over the Valley: from 3 lots in JH Golf & Tennis, to a building site on Karns Hillside in Town, to a unique 5 acre parcel in "downtown" Wilson with Fish Creek frontage. The majority of lot sales in September occurred over $1 million, with 6 lots selling for over $2 million, including large parcels in Bar BC, Wilderness Ranches, Shooting Star and Spring Creek Ranch.  Entry level sales took a dip as 15% of property sales were under $500,000 in September. While this segment of the market has seen volatile ups and downs over the past year, the general trend is downward as fewer and fewer properties are available at this price point. Compare this past month (15%) to early in 2014, when 40-45% of property sales occurred under $500,000 (see chart below). Currently there are only 27 properties in ALL of Teton County priced under $500,000.  





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What’s new in Sept 2016? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 43 :: Total New Listings in Sept
    • New Listing Volume: $68,564,000
    • Average List Price: $1,595,000
  • 37 :: New Residential Properties (single family, condo, townhome)
    • Average List Price: $1,470,000
    • New listings priced under $1 million :: 20 (54%)
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 8
  • 6 :: New Building Sites
    • Average List Price: $2,363,000
    • New listings priced under $1 million :: 1 (17%)
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 2

What it means: After slowly declining over the past few months since the peak in May (110 new listings), new inventory dropped off significantly in September, with only 43 new properties hitting the market last month. While September is not historically a popular month for sellers to list their properties, this September's new listings still fell far short of 2015 (see chart below). Dollar volume of new listings plummeted in September, recording roughly 1/4 of the dollar volume seen in August ($68MM vs. $244MM). The price points of these new listings were also down, as evidenced by a sharp drop in the average listing price. (Keep in mind that August's high average listing price was helped by several high-end land parcels in the Bar BC, Spring Gulch Ranch and the Snake River Sporting Club.) Twenty-one of the new residential listings in September were priced under $1 million (nearly 50%), with 6 of them priced under $500,000. Compare that to August, when only 39% of new listings were under the $1 million mark. The well priced properties continue to move quickly as 8 of these sub $1 million listings are already under contract or sold (by Oct 10), including a 4 bedroom townhome at the base of Snow King Mountain, which went under contract within hours of hitting the MLS. The trend of high-end land listings continued in September, with 4 of the 6 new lot listings priced over $1.5 million, including 2 lots in Shooting Star and one in Granite Ridge, both located at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.   

Notable new listings in Sept include:

  • Deed Restricted Employee Housing condo at base of Snow King Mountain - $299,000
  • Live/Work Units (downstairs office, upstairs living) across from Whole Grocer - starting at $660,000
  • Nicely updated home close to parks, hiking and amenities in West Jackson - $765,000
  • Four bedroom home nestled in the trees over looking Fish Creek area in Wilson – $3,195,000

Click HERE to view all available September residential listings.

Click HERE to view all available September land listings.

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