The Colbert Real Estate Report
Monthly Market Update for Nov 2015
Jackson Hole, WY
Summary – Oct 2015:
- 46 :: Total residential sale transactions (down slightly after 2 high months)
- $89,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume (including unreported sale prices)
- $1,940,000:: Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (similar to last month)
- 96% :: Ratio of sales price to list price (consistent for past 6 months)
- 196 :: Average days on market prior to selling (back up after a low month in Sept)
What it means: After a very strong performance in August and September, both real estate transactions and sales volume dipped slightly in October, but remained robust. Sales transactions in October were the fifth highest in the past 12 months, while sales volume (including unreported sale prices*) was the fourth highest in the previous year. The average sales price in Teton County remained consistent with the past 2 months, hovering just under $2 million. Properties continue to sell, on average, at a 4% discount to the current listing price. The average days a property sits on the market before selling increased slightly after a low in September and is right near the 12-month average of 193 days. In particular, there were 3 properties that sold last month after more than 2 years on the market, including a Bed and Breakfast on Teton Village Road, that sold for 97% of its original listing price when it first came onto the market back in July 2013. We continue to see well priced and/or in high demand properties selling very quickly and close to asking price. In October, 16 of the 46 sales (35% of all sales) closed within 3 months of being listed. Additionally, 7 sales in October sold at or ABOVE the listing price, including a rare Grand Teton National Park in-holding, which sold for $1.795m after 150 days on the market.
*Note that in previous reports, I separately tracked sales that were reported to the MLS and transactions where the sales price was withheld from the MLS. Lately, there have been several significant sales each month that are not reported to the MLS. Given that these undisclosed sales are a valuable component in tracking the overall market trends, going forward, I will be reporting the COMBINED total sales volume and average sales prices, including those sales reported to the MLS and making an estimate for sale prices not reported to the MLS.
What Sold in Oct 2015?
- 61% :: Percentage of single family home sales (another increase)
- 26% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (similar to last month)
- 13% :: Percentage of Land Sales (another decrease)
- 61% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (highest % in last 2 years)
- 39% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (down again from last month)
- 13% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (lowest % in last 2 years)
What it means: Single family home sales increased again after a spike in September, representing just over 60% of all sales in October in Teton County. Last month, 21 of the 28 sales over $1 million were for single family homes, while only 7 single family homes sold under the $1 million mark. Condo/townhome sales remained consistent, representing a quarter of all sales last month. The most expensive condo sale was a 1,600 sq foot unit at the Pearl at Jackson building in Town, which sold for just under $1.5 million. Building lot sales took another dip after an increasing trend seen throughout the summer months. Many potential lot buyers are most likely waiting until closer to spring to allow them to break ground soon after the purchase. Properties selling for over $1 million continue to rise, reaching another high last month accounting for over 60% of all transactions – the highest percentage recorded in the last 2 years! There were several notable high-end sales in October including a 6,600 sq ft estate in 3 Creek Ranch, which was listed for $14.9 million and sold for an undisclosed amount (pictured below). Conversely, sales under $500,000 continue to follow a downward trend. In October, there were 6 property sales under the half million mark, representing only 13% of all sales – the lowest percentage seen in the past 2 years! The least expensive condo sale in October was a 2 bedroom unit in the Hillside Business Complex south of Town, which sold for $230,000 cash, as no bank would provide a loan for the condo given its location in an industrial park. In October, we saw a rare occurrence – the sale of a single family home in Teton County for UNDER $500,000. The 1,600 sq ft home was located at Hoback Junction (backing up to the highway) and needed quite a bit of work.
What’s new in October 2015? (New Listing Analysis)
- 46 :: Total number of new listings in Oct
- Average List Price: $1,118,000
- 36 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
- Average List Price: $1,300,000
- New listings already under contract or sold: 4
- 10 new building sites
- Average List Price: $935,000
- New listings already under contract or sold: 1
What it means: New listings hitting the market each month continue to drop since the height of the listing season in June, however compared to October 2014, we did see more new listings this year (36 v 46). The average listing price of new inventory dropped in October and was the lowest average in the past 8 months (see chart below). As of November 10th, only 11% of these new listings are under contract or sold. Compare that to last month where nearly 30% of the September new listings were under contract by mid October. The rate of new inventory coming onto the market in October was identical to inventory leaving the market (i.e. sales). This is the first time since November 2014 that new listings have NOT exceeded sales in any given month (see chart below). Fewer and fewer sellers choose to list their property in the winter months, believing that their property will show much better during the spring/summer when everything is green. That being said, now may be a great time to sell a property as there is not much new inventory (i.e. competition) coming onto the market. (Please contact me for a free in-depth analysis on the current market value of your property.)
Notable new listings in October include:
- A 2 bed / 2 bath single family home with 1 car garage and fenced backyard in Town: $607,500
- Two building sites in Kelly with direct Teton views: $479,000 each
- A 6,500 sq ft modern designed house atop Spring Creek Ranch: $15,000,000 (pictured below)
Click HERE to view all new September residential listings.
Click HERE to view all new September land listings.
Entry level home options disappearing in Teton County
Available properties under $500,000 have all but disappeared in the Jackson Hole real estate market, while upper-end home sales (over $1 million) see impressive increases amid the recovery.
The Jackson Hole Report, a quarterly market report prepared by my colleague David Viehman at RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, provides insights into the local real estate market through the end of the 3rd quarter. Click HERE to read the full 2015 Q3 Report.
After the first 9 months of 2015, the trend in the Jackson Hole real estate market seems to be this: the more expensive the price point of the home, the greater the increase in sale transactions and sales volume. Home sales over $1 million are up 27%; home sales over $3 million are up 36%; and homes selling for over $5 million are up a whopping 200% compared to this time last year.
Conversely, homes for sale under $500,000 are a thing of the past. For only the second time in Jackson Hole’s history, there are ZERO single family homes for sale under $500,000. The least expensive single family home for sale in Teton County is a 584 sq ft log cabin with a loft bedroom on 2.24 acres in Red Top Meadows, priced at $545,000. These prices push many first time homebuyers into the condo/townhome market, where less than half of the 24 condo/townhomes listed for sale under $500,000 have a garage. Even with low interest rates, Buyers still need to come up with a $75,000 – $100,000 down payment to avoid costly private mortgage insurance.
Compared to last year, the first 9 months of 2015 continued to show signs of a bullish market recovery with increases across the entire real estate market.
- Number of Sale Transactions are up 11%
- Overall dollar volume rose 40%
- Average Sale Price increased by 27%
- Nearly half (47%) of real estate transactions in Jackson Hole through Q3 2015 were cash sales (i.e. no financing)
- 51% of available listings are priced under $1 million, with only 11% of all inventory priced under $500,000
- Overall available inventory rose slightly (2%), with an average listing price of $2.7 million, however available inventory under $1 million continues to decline
- High end sales are experiencing tremendous growth with a 66% increase in sales. Notably, 26 sales have occurred over $5 million, up 200% from last year.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
- Single family home sales continue to gain steam, with transactions up 7% and dollar volume up 41%
- Average Sale Price increased 32%
- The $500,000 – $1 million segment saw the most sales (77) through the 3rd quarter, while the $1 -2 million range fared well too, with 62 sales so far this year
- Most (28%) single family home sales occurred in the Town of Jackson, while 15 homes have sold in Rafter J in 2015
- Available single family home listings are up 9%, with homes over $1 million up 11%, however the average listing price actually dipped 3% compared to this time last year
- Overall condo sales are up 7%, with condo sales over $1 million up 235%!
- Condos and townhomes in Teton Village and Shooting Star accounted for 2/3 of the sales over $1 million
- Average Sale Price is up 29%
- Available inventory increased 25%, however inventory levels are still hovering at an eight year low
- Active condo listings under $500,000 are down 61% compared to the high inventory levels seen in 2009
- There are 24 available condos priced under $500,000, with only 3 condos are priced under $300,000
- Lot sales continue to increase, with a 20% increase in transactions and a 54% increase in dollar volume compared to Q3 2014
- Average Sale Price is up 29%
- The majority (53%) of single family lot sales were over $1 million
- Vacant land listings under $500,000 are disappearing, with only 13 currently on the market.
As a first time home buyer in today’s market, it may seem that prices and values are becoming out of reach. Even as a seasoned home buyer, it is obvious that you can’t get as much as you once could in any given price range. That being said, there are still opportunities out there, with many not listed in the MLS. If you are an active buyer, or looking to get into the Jackson Hole real estate market, please connect with me for an honest and comprehensive analysis of the current buying opportunities in our market.
As a Seller, the best strategy is to price your property competitively (based on the most comparable sales) and market it effectively. If you are interested in a learning what your property could sell for in this market, please connect with me for a free, in-depth, data-driven market analysis.
Katie Colbert Brady, Associate Broker
RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, a member of the RE/MAX Global Network
Mobile: 307.699.4137 Office: 307.739.1234
Voted one of Jackson Hole’s Top Real Estate Agents by JH Weekly Reader’s Poll since 2012