Monthly Market Report Archives - Katie Brady Real Estate

2021: March Market Report in Jackson Hole

April 12, 2021/in Average Sales Price, Buyers, Days on Market, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Listing Prices, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, New Listings, Real Estate Sales, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Sellers, Single family homes, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report/by Molly Stewart

Despite dwindling levels of inventory, real estate sales increased slightly in March with 48 transactions, more than double the number of sales last March 2020. While recording two more sales than February, total sales volume increased $18 million to $156 million. The average sale price topped $3 million for the third time in the last 5 months. The average number of days a property was on the market before closing dipped to 115, the lowest monthly average since September 2019, an illustration of the quick pace of homes going under contract soon after hitting the market. Demand remains high for Jackson Hole properties. Nearly half of all properties sold at or above their listing price in March – 13 sales at full listing price and 10 properties selling ABOVE the asking price, no doubt a result of multiple offers and bidding wars, a trend that is now becoming very common in our market. It’s interesting to note that 11 sales in March were undisclosed (marked a $0 in MLS), so applying the same rate, we could assume at least 5 more sales occurred at or above their listing prices, meaning that close to 60% of March sales were for full price or greater! As a result, after hitting a high of 99% in February, the average sale to list price ratio was 100% in March, a number never seen since I began tracking stats in 2013.

The majority (44%) of sales in March were for single family homes. With low available inventory, vacant lot sales remained strong, representing 23% of all transactions last month. Seventy (70%) percent of sales occurred above $1,000,000 in March, with half those sales occurring above $3 million, including a 7,400 sq ft 3 Creek house listed for $12.25 million, a ranch lot in Bar BC listed for $8.75 million and a 5 bedroom home in Teton Pines listed for $10.5 million.

New listings increased in March with 45 properties entering the market, the highest number of monthly listings in the last 6 months and slightly more than new listings in March of 2020. With an increase in listings came an increase in dollar volume with March’s new listings totaling more than $175 million. Not only is this the highest monthly listing volume since September 2020, it is also $114 million more than March 2020, which had only 5 fewer listings. Not surprising, the average listing price nearly reached $4 million in March 2021, up $2 million from March 2020! Thirteen new lot listings entered the market, the highest monthly total since September 2020, with an average listing price of $2.9 million.

Thirty-five of the 45 new listings were in excess of $1 million, while less than 1 in 4 properties entering the market in March was priced under the $1 million mark, including an 2 bedroom Elk Run townhome, a 1 bedroom condo in the Aspens and a 3 bedroom townhome in Cottonwood Flats, all of which received multiple offers pushing the contract price well over the listing price.

Currently there are just 46 total listings for residential property in Teton County. Available condos range from a Miller Park Loft unit for $549,000 to a 3 bedroom Four Seasons unit for $6,950,000. The least expensive single family home property is $3.1 million (a 1 bedroom ARU with room to build a main house). There are only 19 lots available for sale in Teton County, less than 2 months supply of inventory (based on last year’s 118 lot sales).

2019 Jackson Hole Real Estate Summary & 2020 Forecast

January 20, 2020/in Asking Prices, Average Sales Price, Building Site, Buyers, Condos, Condos under $500, Days on Market, East Jackson, Grand Teton National Park, High End Real Estate, Housing, Inventory Levels, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Land/Building Sites, Listing Prices, Luxury Property, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, Over $1 million, Past Sales, Properties under $500, Real Estate Sales, Supply/Demand, The Jackson Hole Report, Town of Jackson, Townhome, WY, Year in Review/by Molly Stewart

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

We all remember 2018 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, right? An explosive year where everything was up, way up! Transactions increased 13%, while overall sales volume jumped a staggering 38%, and the average sale price was up 22%. What a year! Could it continue? Surely this level of appreciation wasn’t sustainable? Many predicted a recession, or a the very least a stabilization after such a wild year. Well, the 2019 market in Jackson Hole did slow down, but just a bit. While not a significant correction like many were hoping / predicting, the numbers show that 2018 was most likely a “peak” year. With a similar level of sales in 2019, dollar volume decreased 6% and the average sale price dropped 4.5%. The median sale price increased, recording its highest mark in the last 5 years but that is more likely an indication of the “Virginian Village effect” (see sales section above) then a result of increasing sale prices. New this year, I analyzed properties that sold at or above their listing prices, which can help us understand overall demand, as these sales are usually a result of multiple and/or quick offers. In each year since 2016, more and more properties have sold at or above the asking price, peaking in 2018 at 114 property sales (nearly 1 in every 4 sales!). In 2019, with a similar level of overall sales, 87 properties sold at or above their listing price (or roughly 1 in every 6 properties). While not a drastic change, this is another indicator of demand slowing down from the highs of 2018.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

After peaking in 2015 (739 new listings), the amount of new inventory entering the market constricted in 2016, down 16% percent. New listing levels have been increasing year-over-year since 2017, recently up 10% from 2018 to 2019 (696 new listings) – marking the most significant increase in over 5 years. After seeing what the market did in 2018, sellers may have wanted to take advantage and cash out, listing their property for sale in 2019. When more inventory (supply) enters the market, this can put downward pressure on pricing, perhaps explaining the slight decline in both sales volume and average sales prices in 2019. Obviously this isn’t true for the entire market, as certain pockets (Town under $1.3 million for example) continue to see high demand (and increasing prices). However, even though there were more listings in 2019, we saw the same amount of sales as 2018 (with fewer new listings), perhaps as some potential buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a larger market correction.

After a exceptionally strong 2018, I predicted that the unprecedented rate of market acceleration could not continue (see my 2019 forecast). After seeing things slow a bit in 2019, what will 2020 bring? Will things continue to slow or plateau like 2019 or will high demand for Jackson Hole properties once again push pricing upward?

Talks of a pending recession still abound, but will it happen in Jackson? It seems unlikely. Jackson Hole remains a highly desirable place to live for year round families and second homeowners alike. As more and more people can work remotely, many want to make living the dream in Jackson Hole a reality. That will probably never change. As people continue to move here, they will continue to compete for properties with the local buyers. Unfortunately, this can lead to the local working people getting squeezed – beaten out by cash offers and buyers willing to pay over market value to get their spot in Jackson Hole. I predict it getting continually harder and harder for local buyers to enter the market, and increasingly difficult to move up in the market (without taking on a higher mortgage in the process).

There is always uncertainty with an election year. Add to that global trade talks and impeachment hearings and many people are holding their breath and watching the market closely. That being said, many investors are cash heavy, waiting for any recession induced opportunities, suggesting that any slight down turn will be immediately buoyed by an increase in demand.

In a unique market like Jackson Hole, where the supply of land is permanently limited due to publicly held land and conservation easements, it’s hard to imagine we will see enough new supply (or a decrease in demand) to result in any significant downtown. Happy 2020!

Know how your property’s “micro-market”. Certain segments of the market are seeing different levels of demand. Be familiar with recent comps, but even more importantly, current inventory / competition in your segment.

Be prepared for multiple or quick offers in certain segments. Think about what terms are most important to you. Focus on buyer’s enthusiasm and ability to preform.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc. Move in ready and remodeled properties are receiving the most attention. Discuss which (if any) updates will produce a higher return.

Know and follow the market. What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels? What types of properties are selling quickly?

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly as inventory in certain segments remains low. Know that there are many buyers for the same property. How will you position yourself to be the best candidate in a multiple offer situation?

If you need to sell to buy, prepare your home now so that you will be ready to list as soon as you find the right property. Be prepared for things to move quickly when that happens.

2018: September Market Report

October 8, 2018/in Buyers, Market Report, Market Reports, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, New Listings, Real Estate Sales, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Supply/Demand/by Molly Stewart

After a busy summer listing season that saw over 330 new listings hit the market, activity cooled in September with only 40 new property listings, reflecting less than half the summer average of 83 new listings/month. The average listing price in September was close to $4 million (significantly higher than the summer average of $2.8 million), as 8 new listings hit the market priced over $5 million, including 2 estates advertised for $19 million each. While high priced listings can inflate the average, a more telling statistic is the median list price, which actually dropped down to $1.1 million in September – the lowest since before summer. Four properties were listed under $600,000, with two of them already under contract, including a 2 bed / 1 bath townhome backing up to Cottonwood Park. Eight new lot listings came onto the market in September, with a median list price of $1 million. Two of those listings (both priced under $1 million) are already under contract.

After a busy summer (and especially busy August), real estate sales dropped off in September, with 43 sales. Overall dollar volume also dropped, dipping below $75 million for the first time since May 2018. While the transaction levels are similar to this time last year (40 sales in Sept 2017), sales volume is $13 million higher. As a result, the average sales price remained consistently strong, marking the 4^th month in a row at or above $1.7 million. The median sales price, however, increased significantly in September, up a whopping 55% from August, as 60% of sales occurred over $1 million (including 7 over $3 million). Of the 40% of sales occurring in the sub $1 million market, only 3 of them were under $500,000, including a 1 bedroom East Jackson condo that sold at full list price of $346,000. The market remains competitive as 60% of all Sept sales closed within 90 days of listing. While only 7 properties sold at or above the listing price (this stat has reached 33% in the past), many sold very close to listing price.

2018: May Market Report

June 6, 2018/in Average Sales Price, High End Real Estate, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Land/Building Sites, Listing Prices, Luxury Property, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, Real Estate Sales, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Short Sales, Single family homes, Town of Jackson, Townhome/by Molly Stewart

The busy summer selling season is heating up with 93 new listings hitting the market in May, totaling $212 million in listing volume. Action is picking up fast, as May 2018 is well ahead of last May 2017 where we saw 86 new listings totaling $190 million in volume. Across the board, sellers are feeling confident as the average listing price reached $2.286 million in May, the highest average seen thus far in 2018. Buyers are watching and moving quickly. Of the 65 new residential listings in May (single family homes and townhomes/condos), 21 are already under contract or sold. While the majority of new listings are always residential, there were 28 new lot listings in May, by far the most seen in one month in the last several years.

After an April that saw nearly 40% of property sales over the $3 million mark, things calmed down a bit in May. While there were more sales (38 total transactions), they totaled less volume ($66.8 million in May vs. $119 million in April despite 9 fewer sales). As a result, the average sales price dropped back down to typical levels at $1.7 million. The median sale price fell to $1.125 million, however this is still high given that this metric has been under $1 million in 8 of the last 12 months. Nearly half of all sales occurred under the $1 million mark in May compared to only 31% in April, with nearly 40% occurring in the “locals” market between $500,000 – $1,000,000. These sales included several older single family homes in Town, townhomes in Town and condos in Teton Village. The sale to list price ratio remains strong at 97%, marking the 6^th consecutive month where properties have sold at 96-97% of the listing price. In fact, 9 properties in May sold at or ABOVE the listing price, including a 3 bedroom Teton Village condo that was listed at $795,000 and sold for nearly $100,000 more.

2018: April Market Report

May 9, 2018/in Average Sales Price, High End Real Estate, Jackson Hole Real Estate, Jackson Hole Report, Land/Building Sites, Listing Prices, Luxury Property, Market Report, Market Reports, Market Statistics, Monthly Market Report, Monthly Market Update, Real Estate Sales, Sale to List Price Ratio, Sales Volume, Short Sales, Single family homes, Town of Jackson, Townhome/by Molly Stewart

The big headline of the April market report is that nearly 40% of all April sales occurred in the high end of the market. After a first quarter of 2018 that saw 60% of sales happen in the “locals” market (sub $1 million), there were 11 sales over $3 million last month, including 6 sales over $5 million and one sale close to $15 million (a newly completed 10,000+ sq ft estate in Dairy Ranches). As a result, the average sales price skyrocketed to over $4 million (the median sales price also increased significantly to $1.7 million). April sales volume topped $85 million, quite the strong number considering that the total sales volume for the first 3 months of the year was a combined $103 million.

The good news for local buyers is that new listings increased in April, with 36 new properties hitting the market – the most monthly listings since Sept 2017. The average listing price of these new listings was $1.8 million, however the median listing price was just under $1 million. The average days on market dropped to 159 days and the sale price to list price ratio increased to 96%. This ratio has been at or above 96% since the beginning of the year, illustrating that many properties are selling close to list price as demand remains strong.

What SOLD in March?

$156M

Total Sales Volume

100%

Sales:List Price Ratio

Market Analysis

23%

Land Sales

$3,248,487

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

71%

of property sales over $1M

17

TRANSACTIONS OVER $3M

NEW LISTINGS in March

$176,814,500

New Listing Volume

Market Analysis

$1.75M

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

$3.9M

Average List Price

13

Vacant Lot Listings

35

Listings over $1M

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2020 Forecast

Market Analysis

2020 Forecast

Advice for Sellers in 2020:

Advice for Buyers in 2020:

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

What happened in September?

New Listings

$3,708,200

Average List Price

$1,100,000

MEDIAN LIST PRICE

$148,328,000

New Listing Volume

What Sold

$73,466,400

Total Sales Volume

7%

of property sales were under $500,000

$1,455,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

What happened in May?

New Listings

$2,286,774

Average List Price

28

NEW LOTS FOR SALE

$157,255,950

New Listing Volume

What Sold

$66,826,600

Total Sales Volume

47%

of property sales were under $1M

$1,758,595

Average Sales PRICE

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

What happened in April?

$2,134,609

Average List Price

$115,268,900

LIST PRICE Volume

$118,833,300

Total Sales Volume

$4,097,700

Average Sales PRICE

38%

of transactions sold over $3M

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Katie Brady