2018: Year in Review in Jackson Hole

2018: Transactions/Sales Volume – What Sold?

$1,892,471

Average Sales Price

TRANSACTIONS

$934,880,606

Total Sales Volume

Market Analysis

Wow – what a year! The real estate market in 2018 saw nearly 500 transactions totaling $934 million in dollar volume*. To put that in perspective, compare it to last year, where 436 sales produced $676 million in sales volume. So, from 2017 to 2018, the number of real estate sales increased by 13% but the total dollar volume increased by 38%. So what does that tell us? Not only did more transactions occur, but they occurred a much higher prices. Another way to look at the trend is through the overall average sales price, which increased from $1,550,000 in 2017 to nearly $1,900,000 in 2018, an increase of 22%!

In comparing sale transactions quarter by quarter, 2018 outperformed 2017 in each quarter. Regarding sales volume, while 2018 started out slowly with slightly less volume than Q1 2017, the remainder of the year made up for it, especially in the second quarter when 2018 sales volume was double that of 2017.

So, in what price points did the additional sales occur in 2018? The majority (40%) of sales occurred in the $500,000 - $1 million range (the “local’s market”), a similar share seen in 2017. Sales in the $1-3 million range also grew at consistent levels, representing 35% of the all 2018 sales. The big shift in 2018, was a 47% decrease in sales under $500,000 (47 sales in 2018 vs. 69 in 2017) AND a significant increase in sales over $3 million. In 2018, there were 76 sales in excess of $3 million, representing 15% of all market sales. Compare that to 2017, when 41 sales occurred in this price range (and represented only 9% of all market sales).

*Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for 2018. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.

Want to know more?

Contact Katie to further discuss market stats and trends or if you'd like stats for a particular market segment (i.e. single family homes in Rafter J)

$1,090,510

Average Median Sales Price

TRANSACTIONS Over $3M

12%

of Sales were Land Lots

2018: New Listing/Inventory Analysis

$2,456,015

AvERAGE LIST PRICE

NEW LISTINGS

$1,609,081,350

LIST PRICE Volume

Market Analysis

After two years of declining or stable inventory, total new listings were up slightly in 2018. Despite the increase in listings this past year, inventory levels are still low compared to levels seen in 2015-2016. The timing of new listings to market was similar between 2017 and 2018, with the majority of new listings coming hitting the market in the second quarter (April/May/June), typically popular months for new listings. However, there was a surge of new listings in the 4th quarter in 2018, when 108 new properties came onto the market (vs. 79 in Q4 2017).

The 632 new properties that hit the market in 2018 totaled over $1.6 billion in dollar volume. The 3% increase in new listings spurred a 18.5% increase in overall listing volume. What does that tell us? Slightly more inventory was coming onto the market in 2018, but at much higher prices, as illustrated by a 15% increase in the average listing price in 2018. When comparing quarter by quarter, the average listing price was actually similar to 2017, with the exception of Q3 2018, when the average list price was $1 million higher than Q3 2017.

THINKING ABOUT SELLING?

Contact Katie for information about your home and its current market value.

$1,299,560

AvERAGE MEDIAN LIST PRICE

NEW RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS

$2,115,078

AVERAGE LIST PRICE For Land

Summary: Jackson Hole Real Estate & 2019 Forecast

Market Analysis

Real Estate Sales in Jackson Hole – Past 5 years

The Jackson Hole real estate market’s 5 year history goes something like this….

The market spiked significantly from 2014 to 2015 with sales increasing slightly (4%) and dollar volume jumping by 23.5%. Then in 2016 sales slowed and overall dollar volume dropped 15%. Many argued we had reached the “peak” in 2015. In 2017, sales dropped again, but this time dollar volume actually increased, meaning while fewer properties were selling, they were selling for higher prices. I’m not sure anyone anticipated what we saw in 2018. Transactions increased by 13%, but dollar volume increased by a staggering 38% over 2017. As we saw above, many of the additional sales and much of the dollar volume occurred at the higher end of the market, pulling the overall average sales price up 22% in one year.

Inventory Trends – Past 5 years

Inventory levels spiked in 2015, when 739 new listings hit the Jackson Hole market. While 2018 saw a slight increase from the low levels of 2016-2017, homebuyers still had 100 fewer choices in 2018 than in 2015. Inventory levels can influence sale numbers and the ratio between the two can indicate the level of competitiveness in the market. In 2015, there was 1.58 new listings for every property sold. In 2018, there were only 1.27 new listings for every property sold. If the trend of increasing sales (as we saw in 2018) continues, and inventory levels remain low, expect values and prices to continue to increase into 2019.

WANT TO TALK MORE ABOUT 2019?

Contact Katie to further discuss the current market and 2019 projections

2019 Forecast

What will happen next? Is this growth sustainable? Can we expect to see values increase another 20% next year?

In looking into my crystal ball, I do not foresee a crash or significant downturn in 2019 in our market, given Jackson Hole’s unique relationship between supply and demand. On the supply side limited developable land remains (only 3% of all land is privately owned and many of those lands are permanently in conservation) resulting in slim potential for future new inventory. Additionally, “shadow inventory” remains hidden as would be home sellers have nothing to buy. On the other side, demand continues to remain strong. In an age when people can work remotely and live where ever they like, more and more people want to call Jackson Hole home (why wouldn’t they?). A volatile stock market may also increase demand as investors look to put their money in safer investments (i.e. Jackson Hole real estate). That being said, I have to anticipate that the explosive increases of 2018 will need to slow. I have a hard time believing we will see a similar scale of appreciation in 2019. We may see a tempering of the recent fast-paced increases as we did after the previous spike in 2015.  Stay tuned….

Advice for Sellers in 2019:

Price your property in-line with market comps. Depending on your property type/price point, the time for “testing” the market may be coming to an end.

You may need to focus on a procuring solid sale, rather than necessarily getting top dollar.

Prepare your home for sale: de-clutter, clean up, work on deferred maintenance items, etc.

Advice for Buyers in 2019:

Know the market – What are the recent comps? How are current inventory levels?

Realize some sellers may be feeling bold after 2018 and pricing their properties aggressively.

Recognize a good/fair deal and be ready to act quickly.

Be prepared to make a strong offer as well priced properties will continue to draw a lot of attention.

Note: All statistics are pulled from Teton Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service for residential sales/listings in Teton County, WY for the dates specified above. It is estimated that sales outside of MLS account for an additional 10-20% of transactions/volume. Contact Katie for more details.